Angus Gunn played against Slovenia & Switzerland. His performance v Switzerland has been criticised by some. We thus deep dive stats to ask, which of the 4 GKs in Seb Pocognoli’s squad should start in the North Macedonia Scotland game? FotMob stats below unless otherwise stated are in league games for club so far this season. All stats are as per date of article publication.
Comparison of current FotMob rating
Before deep diving stats below, this is a simple direct comparison of the current FotMob rating of each GK.
FotMob’s rating of 7.40 makes Bain easily the form GK in their view of the 4. McCracken’s 7.15 is also a very solid score. Conversely, their 6.58 for Gunn suggests a player with sub-par form so far this season.
Next we deep dive stats.
Scott Bain
Stats
| Age | 34 |
| Height | 183 cm |
| SMNT caps | 4 |
| Current club | Falkirk |
| Club division | Scots 1st tier |
| Club division Opta rating | 75.2 (38th globally) |
| Current FotMob rating | 7.40 |
| League mins played this season | 630 (i.e., 7 games) |
| Number of saves | 30 |
| Save % | 76.9% |
| Goals conceded | 9 |
| Goals prevented | 5.36 |
| Clean sheets | 1 |
| Error led to goal | 1 |
| Acted as sweeper | 2 |
| High claim | 3 |
| Successful passes | 193 |
| Successful pass completion | 66.3% |
Analysis
Bainiacs are calling for their man to be given his chance to add to his 4 senior caps. In his favour he has the highest Save % (76.9%) & easily the highest Goals prevented (5.36 in 7 games is tremendous), of the 4 GKs in Pocognoli’s squad.
Other stats though make Bain’s case less compelling. E.g., while many claim Bain is good with the ball at his feet, his underwhelming pass completion of 66.3% is below average compared to other GKs in his club’s division & has lots of room for improvement. Also, he made an error failing to routinely claim the ball on the left side of his penalty box v Celtic, directly leading to a goal.
Angus Gunn
Stats
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 196 cm |
| SMNT caps | 27 |
| Current club | San Jose Earthquakes |
| Club division | US 1st tier |
| Club division Opta rating | 79.3 (19th globally) |
| Current FotMob rating | 6.58 |
| League mins played this season | 990 (i.e., 11 games) |
| Number of saves | 35 |
| Save % | 60.3% |
| Goals conceded | 23 |
| Goals prevented | -1.29 |
| Clean sheets | 2 |
| Error led to goal | 0 |
| Acted as sweeper | 9 |
| High claim | 5 |
| Successful passes | 236 |
| Successful pass completion | 74.2% |
Analysis
No Scotland eligible GKs currently play in a higher ranked division globally than Gunn. While some people prefer not to admit it, the MLS at 79.3 (19th globally), is easily a higher rated division compared to its Scottish equivalent rated 75.2 (38th globally).
His 60.3% save percentage is unconvincing although he could argue that in the division he plays in, he faces better opponents than other GKs in Pocognoli’s squad. His 74.2% is easily the highest successful pass % of Pocognoli’s 4 GKs.
Gunn has a club goals prevented stat of -1.29 (note the minus sign). In other words, if Gunn had performed neither better nor worse than expected in keeping the ball out of the net, that figure would = zero. That minus sign indicates he delivered an overall standard so far for the Quakes below that expected.
That Gunn has played in both internationals so far this Autumn, allows a look at the ratings assigned to those performances by different stats sites:
| v Slovenia | v Switzerland | |
| BeSoccer | 7.6 | 6.7 |
| Flashscore | 7.1 | 6.7 |
| FotMob | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| Average | 7.43 | 6.8 |
Liam Kelly
Stats
| Age | 30 |
| Height | Disputed (189 cm FotMob, 184 cm BeSoccer) |
| SMNT caps | 3 |
| Current club | Rangers |
| Club division | Scots 1st tier |
| Club division Opta rating | 75.2 (38th globally) |
| Current FotMob rating | Unrated |
| League mins played this season | Zero (i.e., zero games) |
| Number of saves | 0 |
| Save % | N/A |
| Goals conceded | 0 |
| Goals prevented | 0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 |
| Error led to goal | 0 |
| Acted as sweeper | 0 |
| High claim | 0 |
| Successful passes | 0 |
| Successful pass completion | N/A |
Analysis
Liam Kelly is the only one of the 4 GKs in Pocognoli’s squad not playing regular first team football this season. Indeed, Kelly hasn’t played any first team football at all this season, deputising for Ivor Pandur at Rangers. That is similar to last season in which Kelly deputised for then Rangers #1, Jack Butland. In the 2 games so far in Pocognoli’s Scotland reign, Kelly has been one of the 3 out of the 4 GKs who have made the match day squad.
Jon McCracken
Stats
| Age | 26 |
| Height | Disputed (185 cm FotMob, 190 cm BeSoccer) |
| SMNT caps | 0 |
| Current club | Bradford City |
| Club division | English 3rd tier |
| Club division Opta rating | 74.9 (42nd globally) |
| Current FotMob rating | 7.15 |
| League mins played this season | 630 (i.e., 7 games) |
| Number of saves | 10 |
| Save % | 71.4% |
| Goals conceded | 4 |
| Goals prevented | 1.13 |
| Clean sheets | 5 |
| Error led to goal | 0 |
| Acted as sweeper | 6 |
| High claim | 8 |
| Successful passes | 79 |
| Successful pass completion | 40.1% |
Analysis
To get an idea of the standard of England’s 3rd tier; the Opta rating & ranking of England’s 3rd tier usually fluctuates at slightly above or slightly below that of the Scots top flight. The current respective 74.9 & 75.2 Opta ratings of those 2 divisions are a reasonable indicator of how close these 2 divisions are in standard.
Bradford City fans going into this international break called for McCracken to be given his maiden cap. 5 clean sheets from 7 league games (& 7 clean sheets in all 10 games including cup games), is the kind of stat any manager would be happy with. Unsurprisingly, given their infrequency conceding goals, Bradford currently top their division.
McCracken can claim to have played his part with e.g., a 71.4% save percentage. However, stats also reveal another part of the story. Namely, in his 7 league games he has only made 10 saves. Hence the obvious conclusion to draw is that the defence in front of McCracken play a huge part in Bradford’s impressive clean sheets tally. In contrast, Bain has played the same number of league games (7) but with 30 saves; 3 times as many as McCracken.
McCracken has 40.1% for successful pass completion. That is easily the lowest compared to Bain & Gunn & also in the bottom 11% of GKs in his club’s division.
Attribute comparison in BeSoccer
BeSoccer gives each GK an overall score out of 100 for each of 6 different attributes. That allows for some direct comparison. The initials at the top of 4 columns below indicate the relevant GK.
| SB | AG | LK | JM | |
| Jump | 66 | 65 | 42 | 61 |
| Diving | 65 | 72 | 68 | 69 |
| Saves | 67 | 71 | 66 | 67 |
| Kicking | 67 | 69 | 67 | 62 |
| Positioning | 64 | 70 | 66 | 67 |
| Reflexes | 71 | 71 | 69 | 69 |
| Total | 400 | 418 | 378 | 395 |
BeSoccer red/amber/green rates all 4 GKs as amber for all 6 attributes, other than the red for the lead-footed 42 for Kelly’s jumping. Overall BeSoccer clearly rates Gunn as the best of those 4 GKs. Only Bain’s score of 66 for jumping is higher than any of Gunn’s scores. Also, Bain’s 71 for reflexes is the only score among the other 3 GKs equal to a score Gunn attains.
However, we have no insight into the time frame from which those stats are calculated. Hence we have no idea as to how much the BeSoccer algorithm accounts for current form. That Kelly scores 378 despite only playing 3 club games & half of one Scotland game this season & last, suggests BeSoccer doesn’t place current form highly in its scoring of those attributes.
The bottom line
BeSoccer clearly rates Gunn highest. However, if looking at FotMob for info on form, Bain’s excellent 7.40 is easily the highest score there. Given Pocognoli & GK coach, Chris Woods, have also had the chance to look at all 4 in training, is it realistic to expect that:
1) Kelly would be given the nod to start despite his lack of playing time? Unlikely.
2) Uncapped McCracken would be promoted from not even making the bench in the previous 2 games, to start the game in Skopje? Unlikely. All the more so since if Pocognoli does want to look at an alternative GK to Gunn, there’s a home game against Slovenia to follow on Tuesday.
Bain has regular game time this season & has made the bench for Pocognoli’s first 2 games. Hence, in form Bain is likeliest of the 3 others to displace Gunn. Similar to McCracken, would Pocognoli promote Bain for the North Macedonia Scotland game rather than wait for the Slovenia game at Hampden on Tuesday?
