The 1st international break of the Seb Pocognoli Scotland reign ended with 4 games now completed under the new boss. The 4 games have delivered mixed performances & mixed results. E.g., The encouraging away performance winning in North Macedonia was undone by the grim performance losing yesterday at home to Slovenia. Below we take a look to see what has happened so far with the Pocognoli Scotland train now firmly pulled out of the station.
1) Euro 2028 qualification seeding
The Pocognoli Scotland team went into this Nations League group as the 2nd highest rated team, behind the Swiss & above Slovenia & North Macedonia. However, Slovenia, have taken 4 points out of 6 against the Scots & are firmly on track to take 2nd place in this group. Further, the 1st tiebreaker is the head to head results meaning they finish above Scotland in the event of tying on equal points.
Thus, 2nd place in the group is now the Slovenes to lose. With that 2nd place finish comes a pot 2 seeding for the Euro 2028 qualification draw in December. The Scots are currently 3rd in the group & on track for the much sterner tests that consequently face a pot 3 side in Euro qualification.
| P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
| Switz. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| N Maced. | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
Based on the benchmark of being 2nd ranked of the 4 teams at the start of the group & now looking like finishing 3rd, this regrettably is disappointing from the Pocognoli Scotland team.
| 13 November | 17 November |
| Scotland v N Macedonia | N Macedonia v Slovenia |
| Slovenia v Switzerland | Switzerland v Scotland |
2) Angus Gunn goalkeeping
As per our deep dive article, Scotland went into this international break with only 4 eligible GKs playing regularly in the world top 75 Opta ranked divisions. One of those 4 is Chris Brady who has just collected his 2nd full USA cap. However, Brady remains Scots eligible until he plays in a competitive USMNT international. Motherwell born Ed McGinty of Shamrock Rovers means there is a 5th Scots eligible GK in the world’s top 100 Opta ranked divisions. These stats are a damning indictment on the current lack of strength in depth of Scottish GKs.
Angus Gunn was in all 4 Pocognoli Scotland starting line ups, delivering unconvincing performances. Should Pocognoli start one of the other GKs in the November internationals?
3) Other GK options are unconvincing
Pocognoli recalled Jon McCracken to the Scotland Men’s National Team (SMNT) squad for the first time in 2 years. McCracken has delivered 7 clean sheets in 10 league & cup games so far since joining Bradford City in the Summer. However, McCracken didn’t make the match day squad for any of the 4 internationals just played.
The 2 GKs on the bench deputising for Gunn were Scott Bain & Liam Kelly. Bain for the most part is having a decent season so far at Falkirk. However, in a damning indictment of McCracken, Kelly was preferred by Pocognoli despite Kelly playing zero first team minutes this season. That lack of game time is par for the course for Kelly at Rangers. Specifically, last season he played in only 3 first team club games, all of which were cup games against lower division opposition. What does it say about Pocognoli’s rating of McCracken, given Pocognoli prefers a GK for whom club first team football is a rarity?
Regrettably, Pocognoli could be on to something with that rating. While McCracken’s 7 league & cup clean sheets this season is impressive, McCracken has only had to make 10 saves in his 7 league games. Compare that for example to Bain’s 30 in his 7 league games this season for Falkirk. Bradford’s impressive clean sheet record this season has much to do with a strong defence playing in front of the GK. McCracken’s case is further eroded by his dire passing accuracy at Bradford of only 40.1%. In contrast, Bain’s domestically this season is 66% & Gunn’s is 74%.
Other potential GK call ups
Cieran Slicker on loan at Barnsley is reported scheduled to return from injury this month. Slicker did well enough last season on loan at Barnet to earn a loan this season to Barnsley, playing 1 division higher than he did last year. Hence, if Slicker does play for Barnsley, that places him in the same division as Jon McCracken who made the squad for the international break just ended. Craig MacGillivray is also in England’s 3rd tier at MK Dons. However, MacGillivray was benched 2 games before the international break.
Opta consistently rates England’s 3rd tier at approximately the same standard as Scotland’s top tier. Both of those 2 divisions are rated significantly lower than the MLS in which Gunn & Brady play.
4) Breakthrough centre backs
Debut performances in this break for both Stephen Welsh & Luis Binks. Both have looked assured on the ball & have done more than enough to suggest they are worth another look. That includes bringing & playing the ball from defence into the final 1/3rd of the pitch. And a noticeable achievement compared to their experienced CB team mates; none of the new CBs received a red card.
Yesterday though was a reminder that they aren’t world beaters, at least when asked by Pocognoli to defend a high line as part of a back 3.
5) Billy Gilmour has been the best player in a Pocognoli Scotland team so far
Gilmour regrettably missed the World Cup due to injury. However, a feature so far of Pocognoli Scotland teams has been Gilmour’s licence to get forward. Pocognoli has been duly rewarded. Namely, based on the 3 stats sites we used for player ratings in this international break, Gilmour’s average rating for the 4 games is 7.35.
That includes stats being dragged down by Switzerland overwhelming Scotland, & cruising to a 3-0 victory at Hampden after Jack Hendry’s 10th min red card. Consequently Gilmour & his team mates had the unenviable, backs to the wall task of 80 mins play against pacey, talented & well drilled Swiss opponents. Gilmour has showed abundant class in this international break playing beside Lewis Ferguson, who has paired up by doing much of the less glamorous work.
25-year-old Gilmour as of yesterday is the youngest player to reach 50 SMNT caps, taking that accolade from Paul McStay. Gilmour was awarded Breakthrough of the Tournament at the 2018 Toulon tournament. Then in his younger years, he played attacking MF before subsequently Chelsea moved him to DM. Credit to Pocognoli for getting more out of Gilmour by moving him further up the pitch. Added to his good form this season at Napoli, the signs are quietly encouraging that this once precociously talented youngster may be back on track to fulfil his very considerable potential.
6) Lewis Ferguson is a midfield linchpin
Ferguson went into this break as the best performing player in an SMNT jersey over the previous 12 months. He was not at his usual high standard in the defeat by Slovenia last night. That though is perhaps an indication of how important a fit & firing Ferguson is, if the Pocognoli Scotland team is to be a success.
7) Andy Robertson is a Scotland centurion with more caps to follow
101 caps & counting for the now 32-year-old. Assuming he plays in both international matches in November, he will equal Kenny Dalglish’s all time SMNT appearances record in the first of those 2 games. Consequently he will set a new record each game until further notice that he plays beyond then. He is currently on 8 more caps than John McGinn who has 93. Longer term the cap rankings of these 2 are prospectively under threat from 29-year-old Scott McTominay (73 caps) & 25-year-old Billy Gilmour (50 caps).
Robertson is no longer at his peak of when he appeared in 3 out of 5 consecutive Champions League finals from 2018 to 2022. He clearly though has no intention of giving up his SMNT place. Kieran Tierney’s latest injury issues are a reminder of his persistent anatomical fragility. Can Josh Doig displace Robertson? Or can James Penrice who has looked every inch a Rangers LB since transferring there in the Summer? Uncapped Penrice faces the challenge of persuading Pocognoli that impressing in a division usually ranked around 37th or 38th globally, merits selection above players who play regularly in the ‘big 5 divisions’, where Robertson & Doig play.
8) Pocognoli Scotland era captaincy
Yet again impressively by Robertson, he has been captain in all but 22 of his 101 SMNT appearances (source RSSSF). Robertson’s 79 SMNT games as captain is every bit as impressive as his overall cap tally. Is he though the right man to retain the armband?
Yesterday’s SMNT performance was lacklustre against a Slovenia team that was quicker, sharper & stronger on the day. As if that wasn’t enough, Robertson acknowledged himself in his post match interview that the Scots delivered a jaded performance, & were outbattled by a hungrier opponent who exhibited more fight & desire.
Scotland were crying out for a Roy Keane type character bossing things on the pitch; ‘over my dead body do we deliver a lacklustre performance. Attain my standards team mates or you answer to me’. Great guy as Robertson is, it’s difficult to impose that kind of desire, drive & urgency when playing in his position on the fringes of the pitch. And even if Robertson was a centrally positioned player, has he genuinely the personality to motivate team mates with the highest levels of inspiration? We have argued before in depth in this article that Scotland have potentially one of the most imposing captains in European football waiting in the wings.
However, Robertson’s next 2 SMNT games will be record equalling & record breaking appearances respectively. Hence it seems only absence through injury or the like will deprive Robertson of the armband in November.
9) John McGinn continues to move up the charts
Robertson deservedly took the spotlight for reaching 100 caps. Will McGinn eventually surpass him? McGinn’s 93 caps is 8 behind Robertson. McGinn is younger but only by 7 months. Neither play in the relatively higher longevity positions of GK or CB.
McGinn’s goal in Skopje moved him up the SMNT all time goalscoring chart to equal 4th with Hibs all time great, Lawrie Reilly.
| Player | Goals | Caps |
| Denis Law | 30 | 55 |
| Kenny Dalglish | 30 | 102 |
| Hughie Gallacher | 24 | 20 |
| Lawrie Reilly | 22 | 38 |
| John McGinn | 22 | 93 |
McGinn’s SMNT strike rate has dropped significantly in the last 3 years or so. He thus now averages a goal every 4.23 SMNT games. Hence, for 8 more goals to equal the record set by Law & Dalglish, McGinn would need to play a further 34 SMNT games. That would take him to 127 SMNT caps. Is 127 caps realistic for McGinn, 32 in 11 days time, given MF shows no sign of stopping being the area of greatest competition for SMNT places? As per on Saturday in Skopje, his cause will be helped if he remains penalty taker.
10) Ben Gannon-Doak remains enigmatic
Gannon-Doak is well remembered for his scintillating displays in the Nations League against Croatia & Portugal. That though is 2 years ago. Doubts remain that he has what it takes to avoid recurring injury and improve on his all too often, frustratingly poor final delivery. And if he is to retain an SMNT starting place, where should he play in a back 3 based Pocognoli Scotland team? Wing back or in behind the CF? Or was the late switch to a back 4 last night a harbinger of future change from the widely touted Pocognoli back 3 mantra? Playing with a FB in a back 4 behind him would likely suit Gannon-Doak, & leave him less exposed than he was last night before his replacement by Hickey.
11) Oli McBurnie is back but needs a goal
McBurnie is back in the team after a 5 1/2 year absence. And despite what his detractors would have us believe would happen, the sky hasn’t fallen down.
McBurnie has shown enough in terms of willing running, hold up play & battling to merit re-selection in the next squad. However, if ever someone though needs a goal to get a monkey off their back, it’s McBurnie. He is a better player than he was first time around in a Scotland jersey & he has only played 4 games since his return. However, zero goals from 20 games is a stat he’ll be glad to get rid of.
McBurnie scored numerous penalties for Hull City in their successful promotion campaign last season. He also scored for Scotland in the penalty shootout win against Serbia in November 2020. Scotland were awarded a penalty on Saturday away to North Macedonia; an ideal opportunity for McBurnie to score. However, by then he had subbed off. McBurnie was also unfortunate in the same game that when he (McBurnie) was optimally placed to score from 6 yards, Robertson elected to shoot instead of pass to him.
12) Kieron Bowie looks the part
Bowie excellently manufactured & put away his scoring opportunity in Skopje. That is the only goal by a forward in the 4 Pocognoli Scotland teams, to take to the field so far. Bowie is big, strong, physical & combative. In contrast to the supply of hardworking, team playing strikers who help the team but infrequently find the net, could Bowie become that rarest of SMNT commodities? Namely, a regular goalscorer?
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