UEFA as usual have rigged Euro 2028 to favour the host nations. We explain how that means for the Scotland Men’s National Team, there’s never before been a better prospect than Euro 2028. This info was previously published as a sub-section of this article on the sky high stakes for Steve Clarke. The specific info re-published here is for ease of reference in the months ahead.
Euro 2028 qualifying rules
Direct from the UEFA website:
“As in the current 2024-26 European Qualifiers, twelve qualifying groups will be formed of four or five teams. Hosts England, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, and Wales will also participate in qualifying, drawn into separate groups.
The 12 group winners and 8 best runners-up (20 teams) will advance directly to the EURO 2028 final tournament.
Two spots in the final tournament will be reserved for the two best ranked host nations who are not qualified as group winners or best runners-up after the completion of the qualifying group stage.
The remaining spots will be assigned via play-offs between the remaining runners-up in the qualifying groups and the best ranked 2026-27 UEFA Nations League non-qualified group winners.“
So to re-phrase, Scotland will qualify for Euro 2028 if finishing:
- Top of one of the 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams
- One of the 8 best runners-up of the 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams (no play off required for the best 8 runners-up)
- One of the 2 best of any of the 4 host nations that fail to qualify (should any host nation fail to qualify)
- In a position not strong enough for the 3 auto-qualifying rules listed above, and also be one of the 4 lowest group runners-up
How realistic is Scotland qualifying?
Like it or not Scotland fans, England in the last 20 years have been a genuinely superb machine for qualifying for major tournaments. While by no means guaranteed to qualify, it’s long odds that England won’t auto-qualify for Euro 2028 based on UEFA’s above qualification criteria.
So let’s assume solely for the purpose of this article, England (while not guaranteed), auto-qualify for Euro 2028. If Scotland do not auto-qualify as group winners nor one of the 8 best group runners-up, all 3 of the following would need to also happen for Scotland to still not auto-qualify:
A) Ireland would have to not auto-qualify
B) Wales would have to not auto-qualify
C) Scotland would have to have a worse record in their qualification group than both Ireland & Wales
Add to this that should 2 other teams auto-qualify in the 2 host nation safety net spaces, Scotland could still potentially qualify via a play-off, as one of the 4 group runners-up not to auto-qualify.
Add to that generous helping hand from UEFA, the current player pool and some very encouraging talents coming through at age-group level increasingly snapped up by Europe’s richest clubs. Bottom line on the Euro 2028 qualification prospects for Scotland; they are as good as they have been for decades.
Will there be home advantage if Scotland qualifies for Euro 2028?
Yes. If Scotland qualify, they will play in Group F with all 3 games played at Hampden Park. Qualification is rigged in Scotland’s favour. The talent pipeline looks encouraging. And there’s home advantage if Scotland indeed do qualify. There’s much to look forward to for Euro 2028.
