Steve Clarke during the March international break made it clear he has not been offered a new contract by the SFA (for the moment at least). Publicly he has indicated an indifference to being offered a new contract. This article profiles what is at stake for him at World Cup 2026. The short answer is, more than a heck of a lot.
Steve Clarke has his proponents and his detractors, from his time as Scotland boss since 2019. His 76 games in charge of the Scotland Men’s National Team is more than any other Scotland manager. He has rightly pointed out his major tournament qualification record as Scotland boss, 3 qualifications out of 4; better than any other Scotland manager in history. He has detractors who claim disappointing Scotland performances at the finals, are evidence that the finals qualifications were despite rather than because of him.
Steve Clarke comments on a new contract
Steve Clarke has made different comments at different times about him taking a new contract as Scotland boss for beyond the 2026 World Cup. He previously stated he rated his chances of continuing as boss were 25%. In March he updated, that he had indicated to the SFA that he is 50/50. He added that he told the SFA that he’d like his future sorted out before the World Cup begins.
What Steve Clarke more realistically means
Reading between the lines, Clarke’s comments more likely mean:
- He would like to remain as Scotland boss. He’s onto a great number (reported as £472,000 per year at the time of Euro 2024). He only has to manage the limited number of games that are in the international calendar. Most of the time, he doesn’t have to leave home. And in the regrettably ageist society we live in, at 62 he may not get a better deal anywhere else (not that he’ll have to sign-on the dole if he ends up between positions).
- He knows that if he fails to get out of the group for this 3rd time he manages Scotland at a major tournament finals, he gets his P45.
- He’s well aware that the golden rules of negotiating include, never appear desperate
Steve Clarke getting Scotland out of the group
There’s more to it for Clarke at this World Cup though, than just remaining in a fulfilling and financially rewarding job. Consider this quiz question; what do the following major international football tournaments all have in common?
World Cup; 1954, 1958, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1998
European Championships; 1992, 1996, 2020, 2024
Answer: These are all of the major tournament finals at which the Scotland men’s national team have participated. And on every occasion they were eliminated at the group stage.
If Clarke in USA gets Scotland out of the group, he will be the 1st Scotland boss to do so at any tournament. The wounds of the Tartan Army from the previous 12 Finals, will be washed away in a sea of euphoria (and for many, a sea of bevy). Steve Clarke will have cemented his legacy with a place in Scottish football history. To follow that; a place in the Scottish Football Hall of Fame? The Scottish Sport Hall of Fame? If he fancies it (David Bowie among others didn’t), an O.B.E. or the like from Buckingham Palace?
Clarke’s stock would of course also go up; useful should he find himself looking for a new job in future. And there’s another factor that compounds the value of all of the above; Euro 2028, partially hosted in Scotland.
Euro 2028 rigged in Scotland’s favour
Euro 2028 qualifying rules
Direct from the UEFA website:
“As in the current 2024-26 European Qualifiers, twelve qualifying groups will be formed of four or five teams. Hosts England, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, and Wales will also participate in qualifying, drawn into separate groups.
The 12 group winners and 8 best runners-up (20 teams) will advance directly to the EURO 2028 final tournament.
Two spots in the final tournament will be reserved for the two best ranked host nations who are not qualified as group winners or best runners-up after the completion of the qualifying group stage.
The remaining spots will be assigned via play-offs between the remaining runners-up in the qualifying groups and the best ranked 2026-27 UEFA Nations League non-qualified group winners.“
So to re-phrase, Scotland will qualify for Euro 2028 if finishing:
- Top of one of the 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams
- One of the 8 best runners-up of the 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams (no play off required for the best 8 runners-up)
- One of the 2 best of any of the 4 host nations that fail to qualify (should any host nation fail to qualify)
- In a position not strong enough for the 3 auto-qualifying rules listed above, and also be one of the 4 lowest group runners-up
How realistic is Scotland qualifying?
Like it or not Scotland fans, England in the last 20 years have been a genuinely superb machine for qualifying for major tournaments. While by no means guaranteed to qualify, it’s long odds that England won’t auto-qualify for Euro 2028 based on UEFA’s above qualification criteria.
So let’s assume solely for the purpose of this article, England (while not guaranteed), auto-qualify for Euro 2028. If Scotland do not auto-qualify as group winners nor one of the 8 best group runners-up, all 3 of the following would need to also happen for Scotland to still not auto-qualify:
A) Ireland would have to not auto-qualify
B) Wales would have to not auto-qualify
C) Scotland would have to have a worse record in their qualification group than both Ireland & Wales
Add to this that should 2 other teams auto-qualify in the 2 host nation safety net spaces, Scotland could still potentially qualify via a play-off, as one of the 4 group runners-up not to auto-qualify.
Add to that generous helping hand from UEFA, the current player pool and some very encouraging talents coming through at age-group level increasingly snapped up by Europe’s richest clubs. Bottom line on the Euro 2028 qualification prospects for Scotland; they are as good as they have been for decades.
Will there be home advantage if Scotland qualifies for Euro 2028?
Yes. If Scotland qualify, they will play in Group F with all 3 games played at Hampden Park. Qualification is rigged in Scotland’s favour. The talent pipeline looks encouraging. And there’s home advantage if Scotland indeed do qualify. There’s much to look forward to for Euro 2028.
Is Steve Clarke guaranteed a new Scotland contract, if he gets Scotland out of the group at the World Cup?
No he isn’t. Unsurprisingly after a 7 year tenure as Scotland boss, he has critics as well as proponents. His critics opine he is overloyal to players whose form doesn’t merit such loyalty. That overloyalty has been suggested as not just in squad selection. The overloyalty has been suggested in putting certain players onto the pitch ahead of other players in the squad.
His critics further opine that his achievements could have been exceeded if he had replaced certain players in the squad. E.g., ageing players and strikers with a low strike rate. Calls abound for e.g., Oli McBurnie, Ross Stewart, Robbie Ure &/or Fraser Hornby to be selected instead. His apologists reply e.g., that strikers such as Lyndon Dykes and Che Adams contribute more than scoring goals. They also argue that e.g., the ageing Kenny McLean‘s squad place is merited.
SFA bigwigs will potentially look on the end of the World Cup as an optimal time to replace Clarke. Scotland’s seemingly relatively easy qualification path for Euro 2028, could be seen as a low risk opportunity to change Scotland manager.
Steve Clarke will understand chances of a new contract boss, is directly related to level of Scotland success at WC 2026. If he can add to his previous Scotland successes by getting Scotland out of the group, he can claim to be a Scotland legend. The further he takes Scotland at WC 2026, the greater the pressure on the SFA to offer him a new contract.
The golden opportunity
Whoever is Scotland boss for Euro 2028 qualifying will desire that competition as a startling opportunity to enhance their CV. If Scotland do qualify, it’s then likely home advantage for 3 group stage games (assuming not drawn to play at Wembley again like Euro 2020). That is a salivation-worthy opportunity for a Scotland boss, for further CV bolstering by getting Scotland out of the group.
Managing Scotland in Euro 2028 qualification is a golden opportunity. While some question his selection opinions & decisions, Steve Clarke is not a stupid man. He will know a golden opportunity when he sees one.
